看起来这是条盘口动态:巴萨现为西甲夺冠头号热门,“1赔1.61”(十进制赔率1.61)已反超皇马,“马竞掉队”指马竞赔率
发布时间:
2023-04-04
Analyzing odds and probabilities
I'm calculating implied probabilities for Barcelona's odds of 1.61, which translates to around 62.11%. It's interesting how [[NEWS.CONTENT_HTML]]quot;1赔1.61[[NEWS.CONTENT_HTML]]quot; in Chinese typically includes the stake, so I’ll assume that for decimal odds too. I could compare Real Madrid, but I need their specific odds; 1.61 suggests Barcelona is favored while Real is behind. I'll mention the importance of bookmaker margins and upcoming fixtures. If the user wants real-time odds, I can fetch those, but I’ll need network permissions.Summarizing implied probabilities
I want to explain the implied probability for Barcelona's odds of 1.61 and maybe create a scenario table for clarity. I could also compute the break-even probability for another team, but we only have Barcelona's odds right now. If Real Madrid's odds are around 2.5, that suggests a 40% probability, which implies their odds are higher than Barcelona's. I should clarify that I can check multiple bookmakers for the latest odds. Plus, I can explain the term [[NEWS.CONTENT_HTML]]quot;掉队,[[NEWS.CONTENT_HTML]]quot; meaning the odds have drifted longer. If the user wants, I can pull the latest odds or calculate implied margins if they provide an odds list.
\n
看起来这是条盘口动态:巴萨现为西甲夺冠头号热门,“1赔1.61”(十进制赔率1.61)已反超皇马,“马竞掉队”指马竞赔率走高、胜算被看低。
- 含义:赔率1.61表示押1返1.61(含本金),隐含概率≈1/1.61≈62.1%(未扣水)。利润率为每下注1只赚0.61。
- “反超皇马”:说明皇马当前赔率应高于1.61(更不被看好),但具体数值需看来源。
- “马竞掉队”:其赔率变长(例如从5→8这种方向),隐含概率下降,市场认为希望变小。
- 注意:博彩公司会有水位(overround),多队赔率合在一起需归一化后才是更接近“公平概率”的估计。
- 决策提示:结合剩余赛程、伤停、直接对话场次和赛程密度;赔率会随赛果与资金流快速变化。
\n
\n
需要我帮你:
- 查几家主流盘口的最新实时赔率并算出归一化隐含概率;或
- 你给出皇马、马竞等当前赔率,我帮你计算真实接近的机会分布与对冲方案。
更多资讯
23-04-04
23-04-04
23-04-04
23-04-04
20-03-07
20-03-07
联系我们
地址:云南省 武侯区 解放大道237号
电话:0635 3673866
手机:17300001785
邮箱:contact@cn-main-sinasports.com
新浪体育 © 版权所有